GREG: You made kind of a throwaway comment there earlier I wanted to just double down on around AI and the LLMs. So you kind of made a point. I forget exactly what you said, but there was some variation of people were going to look stuff up, I think in the LLMs and become experts or something. Can you talk more about what that meant? And could you go further on that point?
CHRIS: I used to get a question from an executive, but let's say my CEO. My CEO would say, "Chris, I don't know about our channel mix. It seems like we're spending too much money on TV to me." But he's the CEO and hasn't ever done marketing. And I say, well, hey, here's the test we ran. And it's a little bit faith, but it's like, here's the test we ran. I really believe we're spending the right amount of money. Let me show you two PowerPoint slides on why. Now we're aligned, he trusts me, we've got it. That's a very simple question. Now you can turn to whoever you're using — Snowflake, Databricks, whoever your data backend is — and you can just ask that: Is Chris spending the money correctly? It's not a yes or no answer. It's, well, it looks like here's where we're spending our money, here's three opportunities that I would explore if I was the CMO.
It gets very detailed, and maybe all your data's not in there. There's a lot of things that could be inaccurate that you now have to go and explain, but the quality of the question could be much higher, and that is good and bad. That is good and bad sometimes because the good is maybe somebody comes up with a good idea and you go implement it and it actually works. The downside, though, is maybe they're sending you on a wild goose chase and now you have to explain yourself more frequently and in greater depth and detail, and now you're distracted from doing what is the core of the job.
GREG: No, listen, Chris, I talked about this. This is what I opened up MMA's Possible event with here just a couple of months ago. It basically said you need to be very ... Listen, I'm a huge believer in AI. I have another podcast focused on AI. I love this. I think it's the most revolutionary thing I'm going to experience in my entire life, not more excited. Two out of my three children are getting, one's getting an advanced degree in AI, the other one's getting an undergraduate degree, and like everybody, I'm buying in.
CHRIS: Literally, if they're getting degrees, you are literally buying in.
GREG: Yeah, literally. Literally I'm buying. Yes, I'm buying in. Yes, literally. It's true. But here's what's funny about that. The LLMs are just a collection of opinions. They are not expert independent insider knowledge.
CHRIS: Yup.
GREG: They can just aggregate. And the problem with marketing is that it's full of opinions and many of those opinions are not right. I'll give you an example, and this is great. So I have probably done more public multi-touch attribution studies to understand marketing mix. I did it once in 2001 to 2004, 2005, and then I did it again in probably 2017, give or take a litle bit. Okay. I've seen more marketing mix than anybody across more sectors, more brands. You know what the last series of studies were most interesting — now, this is prior to CTV — you know what the study showed us? That the mix should ... This is in consumer, this is consumer, this is cutting-the-cord behavior going on pretty extensively in the mid-teens.
CHRIS: Oh yeah. Right.
GREG: Okay. So we're leaning into that pretty heavily now. TV's changing. We now have a thousand channels. Okay. Linear television was by and far the most valuable part of the mix. And this is when everybody was out saying how terrible linear television was. It was the single greatest driver of performance. In fact, so much so that it should be in those studies between 45 and 65% of the mix. That was the optimized level. And listen, at the time I was running the Mobile Marketing Association. I had no reason to say that. There was no self-interest. I had no commercial basis for that point of view, but that's what the data showed. And so you're right, there was just so much. And what people were sort of getting confused by, and it really annoyed me is that you got Ad Age and Ad Week, they're coming out saying, "Oh, TV pricing's growing up too much. It's so bad." It's like, no, what that study showed was the deal of the century, and that was just the buyers manipulating the press to try to negotiate lower TV rates. I mean, it's just so insane. But yes, if you don't have independent measurement, you don't have any idea what's going on.
CHRIS: But by the way, if it's going up so much, but it's not valuable, why is the inventory being purchased, right?
GREG: Yeah. Yeah. It's a little like Yogi Berra, right? Yeah, this place is too popular. Nobody's going there anymore. It's too crowded. Nobody's going in there anymore, right?
CHRIS: Yeah. But I mean, if the value of the inventory is increasing, if they set the price too high, nobody's going to buy it because the smart marketers are going to say it's not worth it. I'm going to go put it somewhere else.
GREG: I'm a litle too concerned, though, that we don't have good enough measurement to have followed the crowd, the wisdom of the crowd. And that was just what your point of view is. I would prefer better measurement, which is why, back to your earlier question, we'll sort of wrap up here in a minute. But listen, Chris, we actually think we have figured out the magic formula. I have an actual financial formula that you could run in order to determine what is the value of marketing in a way as CFO's diminishing cash flows and it's using an element of that with some other elements to it. And we're sort of aggregating now tests to understand. We're going to show it for the first time at my CMO/COO summit here coming up at the end of July, but we think we have the magic formula. And my sense of it, and it's still early, so I want to be a little careful about this because there's still more work to do is that, one, is that a CFO would never cut a marketing budget again when they see this in results. Never, never, never, never.
Because the problem is we as marketers have done a terrible job telling them what the long-term value is of marketing, which is what brand in particular is about. And then the other thing of this is that we've not found a single marketer — and we've worked now with about 10 of them to try to figure this out — not one of them yet has their data organized to do this analysis. Not one. We've had to go in and completely redo datastacks at companies just to be able to set them up and then run the formula for the CFO to understand. Kind of crazy where we are.
CHRIS: Yeah. Well, I am super interested and curious about what this is, this unveiling of yours.
GREG: Yeah, could be a big deal. I mean, there's two brands that are working on it right now that are going through the process, and we'll have the results in the next three to four weeks and know. I mean, if not, we'll stand onstage and say, "Wow, that was harder than we thought. We don't have the actual results, but here's where we are."
CHRIS: If you can standardize that and educate people on how to do it well, that will be transformational.
GREG: I think it could be. It's one of those, listen, I've had a couple of these in my career business, it could be the most important thing we've ever done. I want to see it before I make that kind of commitment.
CHRIS: Yeah, yeah, for sure.
GREG: Chris, listen, this has been a lot of fun. I mean, it really was interesting to have a guy who's done this. I mean, like I said, John Costello is the only one I know who's done a CMO job five different times. So you're up to four. So I mean, you look young enough, I think you could break his record.
CHRIS: I'm going to try. I'm going to try. As long as you promise to have me back if I get there, I will keep trying.
GREG: Exactly. Exactly what I'll have to do, oh, here's Chris again at his new CMO gig, I guess maybe that's what it's going to be.
CHRIS: Yeah. By the way, that is not an organizational announcement for A Place for Mom. I plan to continue to work there for quite some time, just to be clear.
GREG: (laugh) No, I was talking way off in the future, Chris, way off in the future. So there we go. After you've been so successful here, you've sold this three times to PE guys. I don't know, the new PE firms.
CHRIS: Yeah, there you go.
GREG: Okay, Chris, this is a lot of fun. I really appreciate you doing it. Thanks, my friend.
CHRIS: Thank you so much.